Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 22.790790 24.769097 26.898250 29.369975 32.172858 35.267185 38.961832
2026-02-01 19.627999 22.350781 25.484210 29.396655 34.207799 40.007513 47.648494
2026-02-08 17.379228 20.489756 24.255888 29.235600 35.779099 44.283684 56.527775
2026-02-15 15.702640 19.021145 23.203619 28.997701 37.047865 48.221214 65.667639
2026-02-22 14.406432 17.839400 22.311355 28.754543 38.149372 51.978989 75.273959
2026-03-01 13.405853 16.915322 21.618933 28.634133 39.318077 55.928489 86.036111
2026-03-08 12.560000 16.105547 20.975977 28.464396 40.324633 59.719765 97.442607
2026-03-15 12.171738 15.879674 21.110575 29.426951 43.191456 67.055653 117.587057
2026-03-22 11.503795 15.197278 20.510028 29.168814 43.985648 70.868772 131.847662
2026-03-29 10.971268 14.666868 20.082190 29.122628 45.108231 75.470978 149.481182
2026-04-05 10.579241 14.311609 19.883804 29.416545 46.855605 81.630400 173.414240
2026-04-12 10.122562 13.826968 19.442702 29.247075 47.705035 86.091205 194.915234
2026-04-19 9.683939 13.352158 18.996348 29.049006 48.523476 90.795443 220.060812
2026-04-26 9.311774 12.958512 18.653320 29.001809 49.643514 96.498242 252.084083
2026-05-03 8.943882 12.549798 18.256045 28.815509 50.450704 101.667017 286.039740
2026-05-10 8.595730 12.152521 17.849851 28.571535 51.098456 106.613321 323.239948
2026-05-17 8.275496 11.782519 17.464601 28.329203 51.713675 111.655242 365.631995
2026-05-24 8.000443 11.471066 17.158653 28.209674 52.588041 117.692211 419.428688
2026-05-31 7.737413 11.165870 16.843937 28.042834 53.328345 123.577254 480.037228
2026-06-07 7.665885 11.172084 17.073399 28.985046 56.879165 139.471606 629.132293
2026-06-14 7.418258 10.871266 16.736337 28.732229 57.423718 145.655996 723.098466
2026-06-21 7.216261 10.638293 16.508135 28.686974 58.499182 154.148033 857.809175
2026-06-28 7.072540 10.497695 16.439673 28.974708 60.506129 166.965600 1077.621070